November 30, 2022

Predictability is Not in Fashion Anymore

 


Predictability is not very predictable anymore. The world, our country, our schools, our politics, what is up and what is down are in constant flux. Rules and social norms of even just a few years ago no longer necessarily apply. In many cases, we have become immune to the constant shifting of what we take for granted and what we believe to be true. The shift under your feet isn't just an earthquake, it is a societal shift. 

*Have you tried to find a cell phone recently whose primary function is a phone? Does it matter since texting has replaced real conversation? 

*Desktop computers are pretty much gone. Even laptops are giving way to tablets and smartphones. Oh, and e-mail is no longer used by many of us.

*The promise of a pension or 401k being there when you need it is not true anymore. We are mostly on our own.

*Health studies are produced every day that contradict what yesterday's said.  Now, coffee can help prevent heart attacks?

*The political climate is as unstable as the actual climate.

*Even something as commonplace as repairing your own car requires specialized computers. "Check engine" light? To the repair shop, you go.

*Network and cable television have lost the war to Internet streaming that has become as complicated as cable ever was. Who decided everything is now + ?


So, what should our response be to this onslaught?  Can we do anything to get a sense of control back? Simple living or voluntary simplicity is a lifestyle choice that has several attractions. Cutting back on possessions and avoiding much of the material society in which we live have benefits that I have detailed in earlier posts. But, it really has little to do with a response to a complicated and uncertain world. Here are some thoughts to get your own creative juices flowing:

Put more stock in you.  Gather all the opinions you want. Do all the research on any subject that helps you get a handle on the issue. But, when it is decision time, trust you. You should not doubt your own abilities. Learn to trust your gut and intuition. If something doesn't seem quite right to you, then it isn't. Will you make mistakes? Sure you will. But, guess what, you'll make mistakes even if you wait for others to tell you what you should do.


Personal responsibility must make a comeback. The time when we could safely outsource all our decisions to others has ended. Believing the experts almost brought down our economy not that long ago. It should be obvious by now that promises to you by corporations or government aren't always binding. You need to take on more of a load of managing and guiding your own life.

Decide what adds clutter to your life and reduce it. It could something as obvious as too much time on the computer or the Internet. It could be too many possessions to repair, maintain and insure. It might be a house that is much too big for your needs. Maybe a three-car garage doesn't need three cars. Over-commitment is a dangerous form of clutter. Are you the go-to volunteer for everyone? Determine what can be eliminated or cut back and do so.  Less clutter means less stress. Less stress means less complexity.

Learning and changing never stop; don't even tryIt is useless to dig in your heels and try to keep things the way they were (or are). Your life will probably be OK for a while without rushing out for the newest 5G phone. But, to refuse to consider change is a doomed strategy. Read, study, ponder. Try to understand how a change you've been reading or hearing about may affect you.

In summary, I believe there is one basic truth that gives us hope: the more we learn to handle complexity, the simpler it becomes.


Question: Am I overstating the problem of complexity and its effect on us? Have I missed a way to find more simplicity? I encourage your feedback.


24 comments:

  1. I find when I'm feeling the most stress, it's clutter and complexity in some format at the heart of it. I'm trying to reduce my life, if that makes sense. There's things I can't control, but where I can choose, I'm opting more for the simpler version or decision.

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    1. I am certainly one of those people who feels more stress when I don't feel in charge of a situation. A "safe zone" is important to me.

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  2. One thing I've done for myself? I no longer reply with factual sites and interviews to the detritus spewed by "friends" on FB who are passionate about 45. They don't care about fact. They have clearly proven that to me. It seems such a little thing but it has done wonders for me.

    I am a researcher. I took research and statistics while earning my BS degree. I listen to reporters with an ear for fact vs opinion. I know that most have bias.

    I continue to focus on my hobbies, giving to my community and a few close relationships.

    My life is decluttered, my home is decluttered and life is simple. Cheers ya'll!

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    1. I spend virtually no time on social media. When I was using Twitter I found it a tremendous waste of time and irritation.

      Part of my career was spent in market research. One of the first lessons I learned is that most people have no idea why the make the choices they do. Following the herd is the default choice.

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  3. In my observation, most of the modern ills and stress that people experience come from one of two sources: chronic anxiety and lack of meaning. Both are outgrowths of our modern culture which is entrenched in unpredictability. Our technology has all but eliminated our "downtime,"--periods in our day when we could be alone with our thoughts--a time to reflect, review, plan, and perhaps create some predictability in our lives. Boredom is a thing of the past, despite its psychological importance. No one now sits in a waiting room or stands in a checkout line lost in thought and reflection, or in conversation with others. The phone comes out immediately to provide distraction, to the point where many of my friends and family CANNOT be separated from their phones for any length of time. They seem to be losing touch with who they are in favor of letting technology and pop culture telling them who to be in order to conform. They look for meaning and purpose outside of themselves rather than doing any kind of inner work to discover those things for themselves. It is a recipe for chronic anxiety.

    As for me, I have tried to purge my life of the sources of uncertainty. I consume very little news media. I do not participate in social media (twitter, facebook, instagram). I tell friends and family that they can send me emails or texts and I may eventually answer, but if they need to contact me... call me on the telephone! I also spend at least an hour a day just sitting, in quiet, alone with my thoughts. I know it sounds strange, but it is one of my most effective means for dealing with stress and planning my life. As a result I find that my days are more peaceful and predictable. I try to embrace complex thought and learning rather than the current cultural tendency to distract, dumb-down and capture people in a web of endless trivia. In my opinion, maintaining your authenticity is hard, but worth the effort.

    Rick in Oregon

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    1. To avoid the overwhelming influence of culture and technology is a full-time job. I also take a period of quiet time, eirher reading or listening to music. Total quiet time on the back porch with a cup of coffee is important, too.

      I find most ideas for blog posts to come during those times. If I force the issue I often come up dry.

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    2. Ah, a man after my own heart. In an effort to remain true to ourselves and our vision for our life together, my husband and I have often felt like salmon swimming upstream. Your last sentence, especially, really resonated with me, Rick - well said.

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  4. Hi Bob! Great post with excellent suggestions. About the only one I question is the one where you say "Put more stock in you." While I do believe that it is good to follow our inner guidance "most" of the time, I also think that we should question and sometimes challenge our inner guidance now and then. I'm thinking of confirmation bias and how so many of us don't know what we don't know--and will sometimes fight tooth and nail for what we are convinced is the truth--even when it sometimes isn't. The world is NOT predictable nor certain and sometimes we must seek our and discover different ways of thinking before we assume that we are right about a certain thing. Does that make sense? But then if we include your other suggestions, we are well on our way to being "in fashion" with how to live. Thanks for the thoughts. ~Kathy

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    1. I agree with what you are saying. Challenging our preconceptions is vital, but can be hard to do if everyone around us is moving in a different ditection. That is when belief in ourselves to choose the best path for us is so important. Confirmation bias is very real and very powerful.

      BTW, hello from Disneyland and California Adventure!

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  5. Great post. I heartedly agree that simplifying our lives leads to great benefits inclu. peace of mind and feeling of control. B ut I also agree with Kathy that we have to broaden our horizons and not just talk to other people, but try to see the world from their point of view. Walk a mile in someone else's shoes. Also, I still want to use the internet, go to the doctor, drive a car, maybe ride in an airplane, all of which requires me to rely on the esperts and professional who run things. We need to maintain -- re-establish -- a better level of trust in our country, even the world.

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    1. Excellent points, Tom. Experts are required in many instances; I do not want a DIY surgeon!

      It is when we begin to doubt our own intelligence and ability to pick the best course for us to feel part of a community while maintaining our individuality that things can unravel.

      Personal responsibility for decisions should never go out of fashion.

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  6. It’s so easy to be bombarded these days: excess is everywhere even in the pursuit of health and happiness and more and more I’m beginning to feel that I’m a puppet that others are seeking to manipulate if they can. Often it feels that so much pressure is being exerted to control what I should even think.I deal with it by setting my own goals and values and trying to live my own life accordingly whilst working hard to analyse and then frequently reject the noise around me, Sadly, so many seem happy to jump on the bandwagon or believe totally whatever they are fed, even when it is nonsense that does not stand up to scrutiny.

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    1. I cannot argue with anything you say. Too many of us give an accurate impression of a herd of sheep.

      Betty and I are at the Disney parks in southern California. Conformity, children's
      expectation and constant stimulation are the order of the day....an interesting juxtaposition to the goals of this post., but certainly OK in this environment

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  7. Two things come to mind. First, I can no longer operate our television. Now, of course I could learn, but to get where I want I would have to take copious notes and practice over and over. It now requires two remotes and I hate this. My husband does it. If he ever leaves me I'll never get to watch another rerun of "Law and Order."

    Secondly, I will never understand Facebook and publishing pictures of the sandwich that you are eating , or pictures of your grandmother when she was alive 40 years ago. The ego of all this astonishes me.

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    1. Two experiences from Disneyland make your point. Everything requires a smartphone: tickets, dining, attraction times, ordering food. How someone not tech savy manages, I have no idea. The park WiFi is rather spotty and inconsistent complicating things.

      Many of the teen girls sem to spend a large part of each day posing for selfies, making sure their hair and pouts will stand out on social media. Sad.

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  8. Bob, this is an interesting post. Has the world ever been predictable? As an artist, I could paint a predictable painting by using a cheap paint-by-number kit, but that would be so unsatisfying. Painting is more engaging and fun when I'm not sure how the painting will look. That tells me that I need some unpredictability in my life. Unpredictability gives life intrigue, is essentially neutral, and is not really a problem for me.

    I think the problem for many people is their view of unpredictability. Where is it written that things should be predictable? If unpredictability is really scary, one could snort cocaine, watch the news all day, avoid any risk, hide in a cave, or hook up with a religion, but the unpredictability of life will remain. The ancient philosopher, Epictetus, really nailed it when he said, "People are not disturbed by things but by the views they take of them".

    So many people have their lives on hold and are not enjoying life while they wait on life to become perfect--predictable, comfortable, secure and certain. They will be waiting a very very long time. The best I can do is to embrace unpredictability while I focus on what is under my control--my actions and attention. That gives me time and space for peace, enjoying the present moment, and living life to the fullest.

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    1. For my generation and earlier, predicibility in pensions, employment, and health benefits were a given: work for a company and be more than a disposible asset

      Work hard and have a good chance at some level of success. Save and eventually own your own home. Schools were safe places.

      Now, most of there predictible parts of life are less common. We have to learn to adapt and trust our own instincts.

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  9. I agree with you on all counts. I try not to let the complexities of the world overwhelm me. We manage our lives as simply as we can,while still learning the new things we need to know to keep up with,well , life in this century, like how to use online banking,texts, etc. I’ve been decluttering every area of our house and garage for a few months,giving things away.An area that stresses me is my photos on my computer (totally unorganized) and all the bookmarks in my browsers..need to pare them down. In my “real “ life, I feel the need to keep our money/investments simple, to keep our needs and wants simple, and to appreciate,every single day, the small things that make life worth living:long walks in our local parks, library dates with ken,playing cards with my friends,reading good books for a couple of hours a day when i want to, cooking good meals and eating together. I think life was always unpredictable, but we are all feeling more vulnerable, from the pandemic, and for some of us, also just growing older.. but clinging to basics and being sure to nurture relationships and hobbies and ourselves, is a way to enjoy life’s bounty during these times. (And it sure would help if someone could really invent an EASY TO FIGURE OUT REMOTE CONTROL FOR MY TV!!)

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    1. Remember when you controlled a TV by pushing the power button and turning the channel and volume knobs? No instructions required.

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    2. I remember a time when we had to go to the outhouse instead of indoor toilets! I don't want to go back to those times, especially since I now have to make multiple trips in the middle of the night.😎

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  10. What a wonderful, thought-provoking post. I feel like technology is the blessing and bane of our existence. One of the strategies I use to manage in this complex world is to pick my complexity battles; deciding what is worth spending precious time and energy on and what to try to ignore. For example, we try to buy big ticket items, such as a washing machine or car, that do not have too many bells and whistles. But I love my I-phone and lap-top.
    Being a nurse, I really appreciated your comment about health studies. It seems like food goes in and out of style faster than shoes. As you pointed out, we need to take personal responsibility, which includes determining a healthy diet. And if coffee prevents heart attacks, I may live forever!

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    1. Picking one's battles is an excellent point. Whether the subject is politics or technology, or any of the hundreds of "battles" we could expend our precious time and energy on, kowing when to simply walk away from that line in the sand is vital to our mental and physical well-being.

      If I live long enough, everything I have ever eaten, smoked, or swallowed will switch sides between being good for me, or bad. In most cases I just rely on the concept of all things in moderation, even moderation.

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  11. I have a couple of rules for myself for new technology. (1) If I think an technology will enhance the *quality* of my life, I tend to be an early adopter. (For example, I was creating documents on a computer before desktop computers became widely available.) But if I don't see how the newest tech is going to make my life better, I just ignore it as long as possible. (2) I don't let the tech run my life. I turn off notification sounds, and I shut down my computer every evening and don't boot it up again until mid-late morning.

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    1. I have learned to turn on my phone's Do Not Disturb function 24 hours a day. Only those on my contact list can call or text. Everyone else either hangs up or leaves me a message.

      I have gone from a dozen robocalls a day to none. This is the most important step I have taken to cut down on daily distractions. It really works.

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